A Microsoft Tablet Would Be Dumb

Microsoft is holding a hastily arranged event in LA on Monday, and several sources are reporting that it's to announce a Microsoft-branded Windows RT tablet. If that's true, this is a bad move and a bad sign for Microsoft.

The typical logic for arguing that software vendors should make tablets is "Apple does it, and Apple is successful, so everyone else should do it too." That's nonsense. More end-to-end tablet solutions have failed than succeeded: think about the BlackBerry Playbook, the HP TouchPad, and the JooJoo. Apple's strength is in execution, not strategy.

Calls for Google to create a "Nexus Tablet" come from people frustrated with the unfocused fragmentation of the Android platform. But unlike Google, Microsoft has compatibility and updating issues pretty much down. Windows Phones are so locked down in the interest of compatibility that they're stuck on ancient hardware platforms, but they all got Mango promptly.

Since we're actually talking about Windows 8 and not Windows Phone 8, though, a better parallel is to look at Windows 7. Microsoft hasn't had problems making Windows 7 compatible with a range of hardware, and 7's many minor upgrades have largely gone smoothly.

Both Windows 7 and Windows Phone 7 show that a range of hardware manufacturers are comfortable building different products with essentially identical Microsoft software, differentiating on things like price, form factor, and other features.

Is Nobody Biting With Windows RT?
The only real reason to introduce a Microsoft-branded tablet is because Microsoft couldn't get anyone else to make a Windows RT tablet. That's a really bad sign, but I could believe it.Asus has already shown an RT tablet, but there's been relatively little enthusiasm shown from other PC vendors.

Windows RT is a weird tweener; I'm uncomfortable with the whole concept. It's not entirely compatible with the main body of Windows 7 and 8 code, although its reported $85 license fee will force Windows RT tablets to be priced more like PCs than like iPads and Android tablets.

Windows RT also appears to be disconnected from whatever's happening with Windows Phone 8, which is expected to be announced at a completely different event, in a different city, two days later. This is embarrassingly typical Microsoft siloing.

If Windows RT tablets were going to be inexpensive, buyers might be able to overlook the fact that they don't run all Windows 8 software. But it looks like that may not be the case. That leaves premium-priced tablets in the market with "Windows But Not Windows," which is a really confusing marketing message. People looking for Windows will buy x86-based Windows 8 tablets. Most other people will buy iPads in the midrange or Kindle Fire-like tablets at the low end.

If Microsoft started making its own Windows RT tablets, it probably wouldn't charge itself the license fee, making the tablets cheaper. But that would have to be a last resort if the company can't find any partners. I doubt many of Microsoft's licensees would want to compete with Microsoft itself in the RT tablet market, especially considering RT is a completely unproven OS.

The solution here is cheaper Windows RT licenses and better compatibility with earlier APIs, or ditching the plan entirely, not Microsoft making its own gadget. We'll see what happens on Monday.